Parc national tadjik (montagnes du Pamir)

Summer water storage by small dam at outlet of Lake Yashikul (and release in winter) has local affect in lacustrine ecology (TNPb, 2012), with four species of fish reported to have disappeared from the lake while one species is close to disappearing (IUCN Consultation, 2020).

There are five small villages in the upper reaches of the Bartang River; all other settlements are outside boundary. (TNPb, 2012). These villages are thought to have a cumulative population of around 3,500 people, which brings disturbance in the form of livestock grazing, poaching and collection of shrubs (teresken), which may cause localised soil erosion and reduce fodder for wild ungulates if not harvested sustainably. Due to the competition over the limited resources and trophy hunting, Marco Polo Sheep and Pamirian Ibex are gradually changing their migration routes to transition through Afghanistan to China (AKAH, 2022).

There are currently only about 1200 visitors/year to the vast site. These are accommodated in villages just outside the boundary and their on-site impact is miniscule. If this number is increased to 3000/yr (as planned) it could start to impact on the natural resource of teresken plants, if the authorities do not substitute imported fuel for household use (IUCN, 2013).

There are great expectations of what tourism development could deliver in and around the TNP. The government of Tajikistan has been pushing tourism development over the last decade through different policies. Tourism activities in the park include cycling, travelling by motorbikes, trekking and mountaineering with little to no monitoring of their movements throughout the property (Shokirov et al. 2021). The use of the small number of 4WD roads/tracks within the site presents a low threat on fragile alpine desert plateau ecosystems if driving off-road. Waste disposal has presented difficulties for park management as there are no waste disposal systems and littering has impacted wildlife behaviour and the aesthetic values of the park (Shokirov et al. 2021).

Past estimates of the population of Marco Polo argali within the park were 5400 and Siberian ibex at around 4200. Efforts are being made to bring legal trophy hunting under strict control and ensure it is sustainable. Within the park this will most likely be around Karakul Lake, but efforts will be made to locate most of it outside the park (to the SE) (TNPb, 2012). Trophy hunts are commercially sold by different private hunting concessions or community-based conservancies. Based on counts and recommendations of the Academy of Sciences, the Government annually approves a quota for hunting of Marco Polo sheep. Currently, the quota is 110 heads (AKAH, 2022) although annual offtake looks to be lower (Parker et al. 2023). Overall the annual total of identified quotas for all huntable species is 126 according to Parker et al. (2023). The Pamirian ibex (Siberian ibex) has no conservation status. Its hunting is regulated on the basis of counts and Tajikistan laws on hunting and wildlife (AKAH, 2022).

Illegal hunting remains an issue. Traditionally, shooting of argali trophy heads has been seen as a ‘rite of passage’ into adulthood for young men. Apart from this, commercial poaching and illegal trophy hunting also occur. Recent improvements in enforcement have addressed this issue to some extent (IUCN Consultation, 2020), however due to the park’s size law enforcement faces difficulties (Shokirov et al. 2021). Since park boundaries are not clearly demarcated, it is possible that a hunting party could cross the boundaries of the park without knowing.

Livestock plays a crucial role in rural livelihood systems in Tajikistan, providing essential resources such as food, nutrition, and income and acting as a form of wealth and savings. However, rising livestock numbers are putting increasing pressure on already degraded pasturelands due to limited employment opportunities and weak markets for agricultural commodities in rural areas (Habibulloew et al. 2024). Intensive grazing continues to be a problem, especially for wild ungulates in the park, also due to zones not being adhered to or understood sufficiently by local communities (Shokirov et a. 2021). Currently, herders graze livestock at 3500–4500 masl, in habitats also used by different wildlife species, for example, ibex Capra sibirica and Marco Polo sheep Ovis ammon polii. Rangers acknowledged that the extensive livestock grazing areas directly compete with wildlife grazing areas, but they also pointed out that herders do not have other places to graze their livestock. By implementing different co-management schemes and alternative grazing practices (e.g. rotational grazing), the park would have the opportunity to manage its pasture resources more sustainably (Shokirov et al. 2021). There is also summer grazing on narrow riparian grassland strips, and some hay-making close to the small villages in the Traditional Use Zone (TNPb, 2012). The wider region of Tajik National Park is part of – Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region – registered 122,441 heads of cattle and 411,482 heads of small cattle as of 2018, with significant part of this cattle recorded in the Murgab district, where the main territory of Tajik National Park is located. It is noteworthy that the number of cattle in the region increased by 57% compared with the Soviet time, and there are state programs for cattle breeding, so the numbers of cattle are expected to further increase. Cattle breeding is the main income source for local people living in or near the protected area. Overgrazing leads to degradation and potential desertification (IUCN Consultation, 2020). It is estimated that the populations of Marco Polo sheep in the area are significantly affected by grazing due to the depletion of resources and land degradation (AKAH, 2022).

Global warming is a potential threat already leading to higher meltwater levels in summer months. Glaciers, which occupy about 6% of the territory of Tajikistan, significantly affect the formation of runoff. Under the conditions of climate change (+1.5°), which has been occurring over the past 100 years, directly affecting the volume of glaciers - sources of food and water content of rivers, up to 10-20% feeding the flow of large rivers, and in dry and hot years, the contribution of glaciers to the water resources of individual rivers in the summer can reach up to 70%, leading to their annual melting (Khusrav et al. 2023). The associated disruption to the mountain valley 4WD roads was experienced by the IUCN field evaluators in 2013 and was raised as an access concern by the villagers in meetings with the field evaluators (IUCN, 2013). On 16-20 July 2015 the village of Barsem of Jamoat Suchan of the Gorno Badakhshan region was banished by the mud streams which had blocked the bed of the Gund River. 11 households were directly affected by the mud stream. The event also affected the highway connecting Tajikistan with China and Kyrgyzstan, 5 bridges, a medical point, a school, as well as agricultural lands and the main high-voltage (Chernomorets et.al., 2015, Shafiev G. V., 2016). Another impact of climate change is the immigration of fauna and flora which previously has not occurred in the site. Many species new to Tajikistani fauna, such as brahmina starling (Sturnia pagodarum), Tickell's thrush (Turdus unicolor) and Mongolian wolf (Canis lupus chanco) are reported to have moved to the territory of Pamir from the South, from Tiber, Ladaka and Penjab into orographically isolated Pamir.

It is difficult to solve this threat in the short-term. The socio-economic situation of the towns and villages on the Pamir Plateau needs to be improved and alternative sources of fuel, such as coal and gas) supplied (as was the case in Soviet times). 70% of rural households proximal to the park rely on Teresken as a quintessential fuel, particularly during the severe winter seasons. This dependency has catalysed an extraction of nearly 300,000 metric tons of Teresken biomass annually, a steep rise over the past decade (Habibulloev et al. 2024). Over the past 15 years, the intensive harvest of Teresken within a 40 km radius around local settlements has catapulted the region into a concerning trajectory of desertification and biodiversity loss.