Lake Turkana National Parks

Ethiopia's Omo River accounts for over 80% of the inflow to Kenya's Lake Turkana (Avery, 2017). The river hydrology is being transformed by a cascade of five dam / hydropower projects, named Gibe I to V. The Gibe III dam was commissioned in December 2016, and the Gibe IV (Koysha) dam construction downstream is 66% complete (Addis Insight, 2024). Koysha will be the third largest dam in Africa. Water that used to flow naturally into the lake has been impounded since the Gibe III dam was commissioned, with river discharges since regulated according to hydropower generation requirements (AfDB, 2009; UNESCO / IUCN, 2015; KWS / NMK, 2019). River water was also being abstracted for large-scale irrigation and other uses (AfDB, 2009; 2010a; State Party of Kenya, 2012; Univ. of Oxford, 2012, 2013; Avery et al., 2018; KWS / NMK, 2019; RRA, 2019). But the huge sugar plantation schemes abstracting water from the Omo River have seemingly since collapsed (Kamski et al., 2023).

The Omo-Gibe Master Plan warned that the flow of Ethiopia's Omo River should not be altered without a bilateral agreement between Ethiopia and Kenya (OGBMP, 1996; reviewed by AfDB, 2009; Univ. of Oxford, 2012; EIB, 2010), and this was not done. The 2024 State Party Report for Kenya on the Lake Turkana National Park World Heritage site refers to ongoing lack of success engaging Ethiopia in regard to discussing impacts (State Party of Kenya, 2024). It states that "The reconvening of the Joint Technical Expert Committee between Ethiopia and Kenya to discuss conservation of the Lake Turkana World Heritage Site is one of projected outcomes of the funding proposal being finalised" (State Party of Kenya, 2025).

Two main aspects of concern for the OUV of the site have previously been reported: 1) The impacts on the lake ecology of altered river inflow hydrology, notably the loss of the all-important Omo river's annual flood season (AfDB, 2009 & 2010a; EIB, 2010; Univ. of Oxford 2012 & 2013; SOC, 2015; Avery et al., 2018); 2) The increased irrigation abstractions that were being developed downstream to exploit the regulated Omo river flows downstream from Gibe III and that would reduce freshwater inflow to the lake (ibid.).

The current scenario is one of climate changing with rising lake levels and inundation of shoreline terrestrial habitat. The increasing surface water runoff response to rainfall that is arising with changing climate exacerbated by catchment degradation are tending to offset the impact of irrigation abstractions (Avery et al., 2018; Avery, 2018). The latest information is that the various irrigated plantation developments taking water from the Omo River have evidently collapsed (Kamski et al., 2023).

The Gibe III dam's vast reservoir has meanwhile been trapping sediments and nutrients that would otherwise flow to the lake. The consequences include erosion of the river channel downstream, changing the flooding regime of the river downstream, altering the nutrient scouring effects of the river floods, and impacting the replenishment of oxbows and other natural depressions that would otherwise be inundated by floodwaters that spill from the river and recharge the underlying aquifers. The completion of the Gibe IV (Koysha) reservoir will compound this river flow regulation and nutrient and sediment capture.

Studies of the Omo delta have confirmed the above concerns. The Omo channel has deepened and "the delta morphology became less dynamic and less complex" (Zen et al. 2023). In other words, a consequence of the Gibe III dam has impacted the diversity of the Omo delta. One can expect ecological diversity to be affected in all the bays and lake shores whose diversity stems from that lake's natural non-uniformity.

The major irrigated agricultural developments have notably included the Ethiopian government's Kuraz Sugar Development Project, originally planning 245,000 ha, but reduced to 100,000 ha that was annexed along the Omo river from two national parks and a wildlife reserve. Areas downstream were developed for large-scale cotton production by private developers. The plantations along the river were however believed to have limited impact on the OUV of the site in 2015 (UNESCO/IUCN, 2015). According to Ethiopia, the Kuraz sugar scheme will use 4-6% of the river flow of the Omo River for irrigation purposes once the whole sugar scheme is in operation (State Party of Kenya, 2015). Predictions of other sources however have been much less conservative, suggesting severe potential danger to the OUV, depending on the full extent of abstractions (Avery et al, 2018). The draft EIA for the Kuraz project dated 2012 stated that 29% of the river water would be abstracted under full operation. In the later Kuraz feasibility report dated December 2014, it was stated that 18% of the river would be abstracted. On the other hand, increasing runoff is being forecast with climate and catchment change and this tends to offset the irrigation abstractions (Avery et al., 2018). And to further compound the debate, the large scale irrigated sugar plantations in Ethiopia have since collapsed due to "cost overruns, design errors, technical overhauls, social conflicts" (Kamski et al., 2023). The cotton plantations in the Lower Omo are also believed to have collapsed. The impacts on the lake fisheries part of the OUV therefore have to be closely monitored, and perhaps the UNESCO / WFP's recently launched 10-year fisheries project (UNESCO / WFP, 2023) will contribute to this purpose in addition to that project's ambitious objective to exploit the lake's fisheries resources as a poverty alleviation measure.

The Lake Turkana fossil sites are not threatened by the lower Omo developments. The fossil bed are however poorly protected and vulnerable to rising lake levels and are negatively impacted through trampling by livestock and looting of fossils by pastoralists and visitors (KWS/NMK, 2019). The petrified forest site is unprotected and encroached by livestock.

Observations in 2012 noted that crocodiles heavily persecuted by fishermen who destroy nesting sites they come across, including those on South and Central Island NPs (Mission Report, 2012; EAWLS, 2012). The threats continue as fishermen are constantly encroaching into the waters of the World Heritage site (KWS/NMK, 2019). The situation today has not changed and a recent private report concluded that crocodile numbers within the site are no longer globally significant, which reflects poorly on the OUV of the site. There is no permanent ranger presence on the islands and fishermen often camp on the shores where the crocodiles nest, sometimes doing so under the pretext that they are sheltering from the lake's dangerous winds and waves. Fishing is not permitted unless under license for sport tourism, and trespassing fishermen are often arrested (KWS/NMK, 2019).

Trees are reportedly taken for fuelwood and charcoal from within Sibiloi NP and elsewhere (UNEP-WCMC, 2012), exposing the thin soils to strong winds. Fishermen that camp illegally on the island national parks will also require fuelwood, which is a threat to the scarce woody species on those islands. With ever-increasing population in the Lake Turkana region, there is escalating fuelwood demand, and wooded areas are targeted as a consequence. In addition, pastoralists bring their livestock into Sibiloi NP for pasture and water, and in so doing they degrade the habitat through trampling, overgrazing, and they cut woody vegetation to construct livestock enclosures (KWS / NMK, 2019). On the one hand grasslands are increasingly becoming woody and bush and weed encroached due to degradation by livestock, and on the other hand the original wooded area habitats are impacted as they are exploited as sources of fuelwood and material for livestock stockades (KWS/NMK, 2019). The diversity of Sibiloi NP is affected as the wildlife includes both grazers and browsers. The recent state of conservation report states that community engagement meetings have taken place to resolve encroachment and that additional resources and park rangers have been deployed to deal with illegal fishing and subsistence poaching (State Party of Kenya, 2025). However, the report does not provide supporting indicators of success.

The lake supports livelihoods of about 500,000 people of different ethnic groups. Most of these people suffer extreme poverty, a large part of the increasing population is young, and the development indices of the region are much lower than the national average in both Kenya and Ethiopia. Literacy levels are very low (County Integrated Development Plans). As the population is quite mobile, cross-border conflicts over water and other natural resources are a persistent concern in the region. In a recent conflict, 22 fishermen are reported killed near Todenyang on the northeastern lakeshore by armed militia from across the border (The Star newspaper, 2025). Causes and patterns of conflict are complex and intertwined with for example increasing human population, displacement of people from their traditional lands by developments in the Lower Omo, environmental degradation, competition over resources, livestock rustling, ethnicity, politics and lack of economic opportunities for the population (UN Country teams of Ethiopia and Kenya and IGAD).

Remote-sensed water level monitoring by satellites shows that Lake Turkana fell two metres during the filling of Gibe III's reservoir (KENWEB, 2017; Avery et al., 2018), and the fisheries is reported to have declined (as reported in the film "Water to Dust" screened on National TV in Kenya in 2017), thus enhancing the chances for conflict. While the Central Island and South Island NPs are uninhabited, they are nonetheless encroached by fishermen who regularly camp on the shores, and South Island NP is used by pastoralists as a dry-season grazing refuge for sheep and goats (KWS / NMK, 2019). Nests and eggs are either looted or trampled by humans and livestock (EAWLS, 2012; KWS/NMK, 2019). Local pastoralists are allowed grazing rights in Sibiloi NP in the dry season and pressure for resources from the park is escalating (UNEP-WCMC, 2012; KWS/NMK, 2019).

The Management Plan 2018-2028 (reference KWS/NMK, 2019) envisages formulation of a new grazing plan with the communities. With the increasing human population pressure in the areas surrounding the site, this will be a challenge to enforce, and needs to be very closely monitored.

The recent state of conservation report states that "community engagement meetings have been held to resolve Human Wildlife Conflict and encroachment in to the property" (State Party of Kenya, 2025). That report also states that "several sensitization engagement meetings were held with the local communities. These meetings were held with the herders and fishermen and extended to areas outside the property area on the western shores of the Lake" (State Party of Kenya, 2025). The report further states that the following Management Plan objective remains 'pending': "Create a buffer zone to the property taking into consideration other critical aquatic and terrestrial areas with complementary legal and/or customary restrictions on its use and development" (State Party of Kenya, 2025). There are no supporting indicators of success and the buffer zone is critical to the survival of the site.

Since the 1960s, fishing has been an important livelihood, being practiced throughout the lake on an artisanal basis, principally by Turkana fishermen. Illegal fishing activities are taking place inside the site and fisheries resources are not being adequately protected (KWS/NMK, 2019). There are, however, no fish stock assessment data to enable assessment of the broader impact of over-fishing on the fisheries resource. There have long been reports that the lake is over-fished (OGBMP, 1996), and hence the protected areas are vital for the lake.

Numerous fisheries expert studies have demonstrated that the lake fisheries ecology is highly dependent on the annual Omo seasonal flood, and hence that development-induced hydrological changes in the Omo Basin would be detrimental (Lake Turkana Project 1972-75; Lake Turkana Limnological Study 1985-88; Omo-Gibe Basin Integrated Development Master Plan, OGBMP, 1996; Kolding; Ojwang et al. 2018; Gownaris et al. 2016; Muska et al. 2012).

Due to the major Gibe III power plant's vast reservoir storage capacity, the annual Omo lake flooding regime has been altered, and this results in negative effects on the recruitment of young fish and the production of adults of all kinds of species with commercial value. The Gibe III dam has permanently dampened the seasonal oscillations in lake water level that were important for nutrient cycling and triggering fish breeding and migration. The completion of Gibe IV downstream compounds this. The loss of these oscillations was predicted to decrease fisheries yield by over two thirds (Gownaris et al., 2016). Declining lake levels due to irrigation abstractions also have the potential to lead to the loss of important fish habitat, including, for example, the productive Ferguson's Gulf fishery (Hodbod et al., 2019, Ambio). However, the irrigation plantations have since largely collapsed (Kamski et al, 2023), the catchment rainfall has increased, catchment land use pressures are rising, and the runoff response to rainfall is hence increasing (Avery et al., 2018; Byrne et al., 2023). A consequence has been the rising lake levels (Avery, 2020/24), contrary to past fears.

The Lake Turkana Wind Power project, located to the southeast of the lake, comprises 365 wind turbines, with its facilities occupying approx. 87.5 acres. Construction commenced in October 2014, and by July 2017, its 310 MW capacity was ready for commercial operations, but there were delays building the power line to connect the national grid. The wind farm today is operational. The project's impact on biodiversity, particularly on birds, is unknown.

The interaction of climate change and periods of drought with other factors such as water regimes, governance, environmental degradation and land use makes Lake Turkana a very vulnerable trans-boundary ecosystem (Anon., n.d). The lake shows pronounced inter-and intra-annual fluctuations in water level as a function of the rainfall in distant upland areas, opposed by a high evaporation rate. Rainfall is the most unpredictable feature of the Turkana climate, yet it is also the most disruptive when it does occur. A recent study by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicts that, over the next 20 years, climate change could likely lead to heavier rains over Lake Turkana’s inflowing rivers, which would raise water levels in the lake and increase the likelihood of severe flooding (UNEP-DHI, 2021). The past several years have already been marked by increasing lake level due to these precipitation increases. Since 2019/2020, most of the East African Great Lakes experienced a significant increase in their water level compared with their mean level over the previous decades. For east Africa’s four largest lakes, including Lake Turkana, water levels in January 2024 are the highest recorded since 1992. At Lake Turkana, January 2024 water levels are 0.7 m higher than January 2021 values (Gbetkom & Crétaux, 2024).

Periodic droughts and heavier rainfall exacerbate the problems associated with upstream use of water, denying the lake of the fresh water needed to compensate for evaporation losses. Furthermore, the salinity of the lake can be expected to increase further due to increased evaporation rates due to rising lake water temperature with global warming (Univ. of Oxford, 2012; International Rivers, 2016; JGLR, 2018). On the other hand, there is an increasing rainfall trend and catchment runoff proportions will increase with anthropogenic activity, increases that tend to offset the increased evaporation loss (Univ. of Oxford, 2012; JGLR, 2018; RVBP, 2020).

Although the wildlife resources in national parks are protected by law, the protection means are ineffective with little control over poaching, livestock and fishing encroachments into the parks. In Sibiloi NP, the inadequate wildlife protection and widely accessible firearms are leading to a decline in wildlife populations, with the few remaining large mammals being concentrated in the most secure parts of the site, confirming that poaching is a significant threat (KWS/NMK, 2019). Within the lake, crocodiles and turtles are threatened as they become entangled in nets and drown, and will also take baited fishing hooks on long lines and then drown (EAWLS, 2012; 2014). Reticulated giraffe have become extinct since the site was listed (State Party of Kenya, 2012). Grevys zebra are endangered nationally and may no longer be present in Sibiloi NP. The Northern topi (Tiang) population is approaching "vulnerable" or "near threatened" status (KWS/NMK, 2019). Large carnivores are listed amongst Sibiloi's wildlife (lion, leopard, cheetah, spotted hyaena, striped hyaena), but current numbers are not stated in the Management Plan 2018-2028. Lion are especially vulnerable nationally and numbers if any in Sibiloi NP are not known (KWS/NMK, 2019). National experience is that large carnivores will occasionally take livestock and pastoralists will often retaliate by poisoning carcasses with catastrophic widespread consequences for other scavenging wildlife and birds. Sibiloi NP is supposed to host Beisa oryx, gerenuk, Grant’s gazelle, and Burchell's zebra, but previous assessments declared these virtually absent. Greater kudu were not previously mentioned although listed on the KWS Tourist map for Sibiloi NP. A major factor displacing the wildlife population is the encroachment of livestock. Central Island and South Island NPs are not permanently inhabited and lack fresh water sources and hence pastoralism is not practiced in these parks, but KWS have reported sheep and goats on South Island NP during the dry season (KWS/NMK, 2019). Fishing is a significant threat to the wildlife diversity of the islands, notably crocodile, turtle and nesting bird populations, as fishermen camp on the beaches, sometimes under the pretext that they are sheltering from the lake's fierce winds and waves. There have been reports of flamingos being chased on Central Island's Flamingo Lake and disturbance of littoral zone habitats by illegal fishermen.