Lake Turkana National Parks

Ethiopia's Omo River accounts for over 80% of the inflow to Kenya's Lake Turkana where the World Heritage site is located. The river hydrology is being transformed through the progressive construction of a cascade of five hydropower dam projects, named Gibe I to V. Gibe III is the latest to be inaugurated (December 2016). Work on Gibe IV (Koysha) is in progress (JGLR, 2018), currently scheduled for completion in 2023. Water that used to flow naturally into the lake is being impounded with river discharges regulated according to hydropower generation requirements (AfDB, 2009; UNESCO/IUCN, 2015; KWS/NMK, 2019). River water is also increasingly abstracted for irrigation and other uses (AfDB, 2009 & 2010a; SOC, 2012; Univ. of Oxford, 2012 & 2013; JGLR, 2018;  KWS/NMK, 2019; RRA, 2019). The Omo-Gibe Master Plan itself warned that the flow of Ethiopia's Omo River should not be altered without a bilateral agreement between Ethiopia and Kenya, (OGBMP, 1996; reviewed by AfDB, 2009 & Univ. of Oxford, 2012; EIB, 2010).

Two main aspects of concern of the effect on the 'Outstanding Universal Value' (OUV) of the site have previously been reported: 1) The impacts on the lake ecology of dampened flow variations including loss of the all-important annual flood season (AfDB 2009 & 2010a; EIB, 2010; Univ. of Oxford 2012 & 2013; SOC, 2015; JGLR, 2018); 2) The increased irrigation abstractions that are being developed downstream to exploit the regulated flows from Gibe III and IV that will reduce freshwater inflow to the lake (ibid.).

As had been predicted, the lake level dropped two metres during the two-year filling of the Gibe III reservoir (JGLR, 2018). Whilst this fall in lake level has been claimed to be within the lake's natural fluctuation range, it has been demonstrated that without the Gibe III filling, the lake's natural response would otherwise have been to rise (ibid.). Models predict yields will decrease by up to two thirds, with fisheries potentially collapsing (EH, 2017).

The Gibe III and IV reservoirs will trap sediments and nutrients that would otherwise flow to the lake, changing the flooding regime of the river downstream, altering the nutrient scouring effects of the river, and impacting the replenishment of oxbows and other natural depressions that would otherwise be inundated by floodwaters that recharge the underlying aquifers. Furthermore, the reduction of freshwater inflows to the lake will lead to an increase in lake salinity and decrease in lake primary productivity, with potential catastrophic ecological consequences for the lake (Kenya JICA/NWMP, 1992; RRA 2019).

The major irrigated agricultural developments have notably included the Ethiopian government's Kuraz Sugar Development Project, originally planning 245,000 ha, but now 100,000 ha and privatised (JCAS, 2020) on land annexed along the Omo river from two national parks and a wildlife reserve. There are also areas being developed downstream for large-scale cotton production by private developers. The plantations along the river were however believed to have limited impact on the OUV of the site in 2015 (UNESCO/IUCN, 2015). According to Ethiopia, the Kuraz sugar scheme will use 4-6% of the river flow of the Omo River for irrigation purposes once the whole sugar scheme is in operation (SOC, 2015). Predictions of other sources however have been much less conservative, suggesting severe potential danger to the OUV, depending on the full extent of abstractions (JGLR, 2018). The draft EIA for the Kuraz project dated 2012 stated that 29% of the river water would be abstracted under full operation. In the later Kuraz feasibility report dated December 2014, it was stated that 18% of the river would be abstracted. On the other hand, increasing runoff is being forecast with climate and catchment change (JGLR, 2018). The impacts on the OUV on the mid- and long term therefore have to be closely monitored.

The cumulative impact of the different uses of the water sources, together with severe drought and other factors, can significantly affect the OUV, with sources that suggest the lake could drop between 16 and 22 m (AfDB, 2009; Univ. of Oxford, 2012 & 2013; JGLR, 2018).

The Lake Turkana fossil sites are not threatened by the lower Omo plantations. The fossil beds are however poorly protected and are negatively impacted through trampling by livestock and looting of fossils by pastoralists and visitors (KWS/NMK, 2019). The petrified forest site is unprotected and encroached by livestock.

Information from 2012 suggests that crocodiles are heavily persecuted by fishermen who destroy nesting sites they come across, including those on South and Central Island NPs (Mission Report, 2012; EAWLS, 2012). The threats continue as fishermen are constantly encroaching into the waters of the World Heritage site (KWS/NMK, 2019). There is no permanent ranger presence on the islands and fishermen often camp on the shores where the crocodiles nest, sometimes doing so under the pretext that they are sheltering from the lake's dangerous winds and waves. Fishing is not permitted unless under license for sport tourism, and trespassing fishermen are often arrested (KWS/NMK, 2019).

The interaction of climate change and periods of drought with other factors such as water regimes, governance, environmental degradation and land use makes Lake Turkana a very vulnerable trans-boundary ecosystem (Anon., sd). Between the late 1800s and the mid-1900s, the lake level fell significantly. Since the 1940s, the lake level then rose before falling in the 1980s, and has since fluctuated, being on a general rising water level trend since 1992, and having risen over three metres between 1992 and 2015 when the Gibe III filling commenced (KENWEB, 2017; JGLR, 2018). After falling two metres during the Gibe III filling, the region has experienced exceptional rains and flooding, and all east African Rift Valley lakes have risen. Periodic droughts and climate change exacerbate the problems associated with upstream use of water, denying the lake of the fresh water needed to compensate for evaporation losses. Furthermore, the salinity of the lake can be expected to increase further due to increased evaporation rates due to rising lake water temperature with global warming (Univ. of Oxford, 2012; International Rivers, 2016; JGLR, 2018). On the other hand, there is an increasing rainfall trend and catchment runoff proportions will increase with anthropogenic activity, increases that tend to offset the increased evaporation loss (Univ. of Oxford, 2012; JGLR, 2018; RVBP, 2020).

Pastoralism, agro-pastoralism, and fishing are the main sources of livelihood for the ever growing population around the lake. Increasing human population pressure and poverty among the pastoralist communities increases activities such as charcoal burning and opportunistic dryland cultivation that exacerbates degradation (UN Country teams of Ethiopia and Kenya and IGAD, sd). The deterioration of lakeshore habitats is impacting biodiversity (BirdLife, 2012).

The grazing pressures from domestic livestock within Sibiloi NP have become a permanent challenge (KWS/NMK, 2019). A grazing plan prepared in 2013 has yet to be implemented (KWS/NMK, 2019). This is leading to over-grazing, trampling of vegetation and an increase in woody vegetation, loss of grasslands, and shoreline nesting habitats for birds and crocodiles are adversely affected (KWS/NMK, 2019). Even the archaeological sites are being trampled (KWS/NMK, 2019). South Island NP is also threatened by sheep and goats, with both humans and livestock disturbing breeding birds and the crocodile breeding habitats (KWS/NMK, 2019).

The similar human threats to Central Island NP are not mentioned in the 2018-2028 Management Plan, presumably because this park currently falls under the jurisdiction of the KWS base in Kalokol on the opposite side of the lake from Sibiloi NP.  Central Island is not impacted by livestock, but the breeding of birds and crocodiles are similarly affected by illegal fishermen that often camp on the beaches (EAWLS, 2012 & 2014), and flamingos are also disturbed and sometimes chased. The paths used by tourists around Crocodile Lake are in places very close to nesting bird colonies. When birds are disturbed by passing tourists, they temporarily leave their nests and opportunistic ravens dive in and steal the eggs (pers. obs.). 

Although the wildlife resources in national parks are protected by law, the protection means are ineffective with little control over poaching and livestock and fishing encroachments into the parks.

In Sibiloi NP, the inadequate wildlife protection and widely accessible firearms are leading to a decline in wildlife populations, with the few remaining large mammals being concentrated in the most secure parts of the site, confirming that poaching is a significant threat (KWS/NMK, 2019). Within the lake, crocodiles and turtles are threatened as they become entangled in nets and drown, and will also take baited fishing hooks on long lines and then drown (EAWLS, 2012 & 2014). Reticulated giraffe have become extinct since the site was listed (SOC, 2012). Grevy's zebra are endangered nationally and may no longer be present in Sibiloi NP. The Northern topi (Tiang) population is approaching "vulnerable" or "near threatened" status (KWS/NMK, 2019). Large carnivores are listed amongst Sibiloi's wildlife (lion, leopard, cheetah, spotted hyaena, striped hyaena), but current numbers are not stated in the Management Plan 2018-2028. Lion are especially vulnerable nationally and numbers if any in Sibiloi NP are not known (KWS/NMK, 2019). National experience is that large carnivores will occasionally take livestock and pastoralists will often retaliate by poisoning carcasses with catastrophic widespread consequences for other scavenging wildlife and birds. Sibiloi NP is supposed to host Beisa oryx, gerenuk, Grant’s gazelle, and Burchell's zebra, but previous assessments declared these virtually absent.  Greater kudu were not previously mentioned although listed on the KWS Tourist map for Sibiloi NP. A major factor displacing the wildlife population is the encroachment of livestock.

Central Island and South Island NPs are not permanently inhabited and lack fresh water sources and hence pastoralism is not practiced in these parks, but KWS have reported sheep and goats on South Island NP during the dry season (KWS/NMK, 2019).

Fishing is a significant threat to the wildlife diversity of the islands, notably crocodile, turtle and nesting bird populations, as fishermen camp on the beaches, sometimes under the pretext that they are sheltering from the lake's fierce winds and waves. And there have been reports of flamingos being chased on Central Island's Flamingo Lake.

Trees are reportedly taken for fuelwood and charcoal from within Sibiloi NP and elsewhere (UNEP-WCMC, 2012), exposing the thin soils to strong winds. Fishermen that camp illegally on the island national parks will also require fuelwood, which is a threat to the scarce woody species on those islands. With ever-increasing population in the Lake Turkana region, there is escalating fuelwood demand, and wooded areas are targeted as a consequence.  In addition, pastoralists bring their livestock into Sibiloi NP for pasture and water, and in so doing they degrade the habitat through trampling, overgrazing, and they cut woody vegetation to construct livestock enclosures (KWS / NMK, 2019). On the one hand grasslands are increasingly becoming woody and bush and weed encroached due to degradation by livestock, and on the other hand the original wooded area habitats are impacted as they are exploited as sources of fuelwood and material for livestock stockades (KWS/NMK, 2019). The diversity of Sibiloi NP is affected as the wildlife includes both grazers and browsers.

The lake supports livelihoods of about 500,000 people of different ethnic groups. Most of these people suffer extreme poverty, a large part of the increasing population is young, and the development indices of the region are much lower than the national average in both Kenya and Ethiopia. Literacy levels are very low (County Integrated Development Plans). As the population is quite mobile, cross-border conflicts over water and other natural resources are a persistent concern in the region. Causes and patterns of conflict are complex and intertwined with for example increasing human population, displacement of people from their traditional lands by developments in the Lower Omo, environmental degradation, competition over resources, livestock rustling, ethnicity, politics and lack of economic opportunities for the population (UN Country teams of Ethiopia and Kenya and IGAD, sd).

Remote-sensed water level monitoring by satellites shows that Lake Turkana fell two metres during the filling of Gibe III's reservoir (KENWEB, 2017; JGLR, 2018), and the fisheries is reported to have declined (as reported in the film "Water to Dust" screened on National TV in Kenya in 2017), thus enhancing the chances for conflict. While the Central Island and South Island NPs are uninhabited, they are nonetheless encroached by fishermen who regularly camp on the shores, and South Island NP is used by pastoralists as a dry-season grazing refuge for sheep and goats (KWS / NMK, 2019). Nests and eggs are either looted or trampled by humans and livestock (EAWLS, 2012; KWS/NMK, 2019). Local pastoralists are allowed grazing rights in Sibiloi NP in the dry season and pressure for resources from the park is escalating (UNEP-WCMC, 2012; KWS/NMK, 2019). The Management Plan 2018-2028 envisages formulation of a new grazing plan with the communities (KWS/NMK, 2019). With the increasing population pressure in the areas surrounding the site, this will be a challenge to enforce, and needs to be very closely monitored.

The loss of seasonality in water inflow resulting from flow regulation by dams on Lake Turkana's three main river basins will reduce the extent and quality of floodplain vegetation and will impact the ecology of aquatic habitats that are important fish-spawning sites (JGLR, 2018). The filling of the Gibe III reservoir caused a drop in lake level of 2 metres (JGLR, 2018), and a modelling study of the lake using satellite remote sensing estimated a 30% drop in chlorophyll in Lake Turkana during this period (RRA, 2019). A reduction in chlorophyll is indicative of a drop in primary production and hence the food chain upon which fisheries ecology depends. Future water management scenarios based on Gibe III operations predicted reduced seasonal chlorophyll-a variability, while irrigation scenarios showed marked declines in chlorophyll-a depending on the level of abstraction (RRA, 2019). Furthermore, river-borne silt that would have enriched the floodplains, deltas and lake will be deposited in the impoundments created by the dams instead, with major ecological implications for the Lake Turkana ecosystem and biodiversity. A recent study of Kenya's Turkwel dam's reservoir measured up to 40 metres of sediment deposited since 1990 (TKBV, 2020). Design studies for Gibe III dam determined that 98% of sediment would be trapped (EEPCo, 2007).
Poorly conceived development projects in the Omo River Basin are altering the freshwater inflow hydrology to the lake and associated nutrient passage along the rivers. Also, the plantations will potentially affect the nutrient status of the lake through the introduction of alien agricultural development chemicals that affect fish and cause eutrophication.
The WH Committee had requested the State Parties of Ethiopia and Kenya to provide an EIA for the Kuraz Sugar Development Project using best available hydrological data of the Lower Omo and accurate rainfall data, and submit it as part of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) by February 2018 (Decision 39 COM 7B.4). A proposed budget for undertaking the SEA was prepared and submitted by the State Party of Kenya to Ethiopia in May 2019, but there has been no response from Ethiopia to the proposal (NMK, 2020).
There are in any case, several studies already on the Lower Omo developments and the lake, and there are global parallels of environmental catastrophes that fully justify concerns for the lake ecology, notably the shrinking of the Aral Sea, Lake Chad, the Dead Sea (Univ. of Oxford, 2013; JGLR, 2018).  

Since the 1960s, fishing has been an important livelihood, being practiced throughout the lake on an artisanal basis principally by Turkana fishermen. Illegal fishing activities are taking place inside the site and fisheries resources are not being adequately protected (KWS/NMK, 2019). There are, however, no fish stock assessment data to enable assessment of the broader impact of over-fishing on the fisheries resource. There have long been reports that the lake is over-fished (OGBMP, 1996), and hence the protected areas are vital for the lake.

Numerous fisheries expert studies have demonstrated that the lake fisheries ecology is highly dependent on the annual Omo seasonal flood and hence that development-induced hydrological changes in the Omo Basin would be detrimental (Lake Turkana Project 1972-75; Lake Turkana Limnological Study 1985-88;  Omo-Gibe Basin Integrated Development Master Plan, OGBMP, 1996; Kolding; Ojwang et al (KMFRI team and others); Gownaris et al.; Muska et al.).

Due to the major Gibe III and Gibe IV hydro power plants, the annual flooding regime has been altered, and this will result in negative effects on the recruitment of young fish and the production of adults of all kinds of species with commercial value. The Gibe III dam has permanently dampened the seasonal oscillations in lake water level that were important for nutrient cycling and triggering fish breeding and migration. The loss of these oscillations was predicted to decrease fisheries yield by over two thirds (Gownaris et al., 2016). Declining lake levels due to irrigation abstractions also have the potential to lead to the loss of important fish habitat, including, for example, the productive Ferguson's Gulf fishery (Hodbod et al., 2019, Ambio).

The Lake Turkana Wind Power project, located to the southeast of the lake, comprises 365 wind turbines, with its facilities occupying approx. 87.5 acres. Construction commenced in October 2014, and by July 2017, its 310 MW capacity was ready for commercial operations. The project's impact on biodiversity, particularly on birds, is unknown.